The National Bank of Ukraine has projected that the reduction in Ukraine’s foreign trade volume, resulting from restrictions on freight transport movement through the western borders in November and December, may amount to $1.5 billion. Notably, the specified reduction reached $860 million in November, with an anticipated additional decrease of $620 million in December.
“According to the NBU’s estimates, the blocking of specific land crossing points along Ukraine’s western borders resulted in export losses of $160 million in November, coupled with a reduction in imports by $700 million. Even greater impact on imports is attributed to their higher reliance on road transport compared to exports,” the experts clarified.
The NBU also noted that, according to the State Customs Service of Ukraine, the share of road transport in the value of exports was approximately 35% in 2023, while for imports, it accounted for a larger share of 70%.
“In November, import losses were partially offset by an increase in supplies through alternative routes, particularly by rail. Similarly, export losses were compensated by higher shipments via the new sea corridor, with the volume nearly matching the peak values of transportation through the “grain corridor”,” stated the NBU. “The reorientation of imported fuel supplies to rail transport, the ongoing rise in transshipment for both export and import cargoes through the new sea corridor, and a partial easing of the blockade in the second half of December allow us to revise the projections for future losses. Estimates now suggest a reduction to $120 million per month for exports and $500 million for imports”. (APK-Inform/Business World Magazine)
