SEB Bank has published the latest Nordic Outlook. It indicates that commercial banks have downgraded Latvia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate forecast for 2023 from the initial 1.1% to 0.4%.
SEB Bank has also downgraded its own forecast for Latvia’s GDP growth for 2024 from November 2022 initially estimated 3.5% to 2.7%, which means the country is expected to have the slowest growth among the Baltic States. At the same time, Latvia’s average inflation outlook is reduced from 9.9% to 9% for 2023 and increased from 2.1% to 2.9% for 2024.
Lithuania’s GDP outlook for 2023 remains unchanged. This country’s economy is expected to grow by 0.1% this year. Growth outlook for 2024, on the other hand, has been upgraded from 3% to 3.5%. At the same time, the average inflation outlook for 2023 and 2024 was not changed for Lithuania. SEB Bank still expects the country’s inflation to be 9% this year and 2% next year.
Estonia’s GDP growth outlook for 2023 has been downgraded from November 2022 initially expected 0.3% to 0.2%.
SEB Bank still predicts Estonia’s GDP will grow by 3.5% in 2024.
The average inflation outlook for 2023 and 2024 for Estonia remains unchanged: in 2023 SEB Bank expects average inflation at 8.5% in Estonia. For 2024 the bank predicts a GDP growth of 2% in Estonia.
Swedbank predicts GDP decline for Latvia and Lithuania in 2023, according to the bank’s latest economic outlook. The bank expects a drop of 0.9% in Latvia this year.
In October 2022, the bank expected no changes for the country’s economy in 2023.
Latvia’s economic growth outlook for 2024 was downgraded from 2.9% to 2.6%. At the sane time, Swedbank has not changed Latvia’s annual average inflation outlook for 2023 and 2024: for 2024 the bank expects average inflation at 9% and for 2024 – 2.5%.
Lithuania’s GDP growth outlook for 2023 has been downgraded from 0% to 0.3%. In 2024, Lithuania’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.8% instead of the previously estimated 2.1%. The country’s inflation outlook for 2023 is increased from 8.7% to 9.2% and for 2024 the outlook is downgraded from 2.3% to 2%.
At the same time, Swedbank maintains Estonia’s GDP outlook for 2023 at 0%. For 2024 the country’s GDP growth outlook is upgraded from 2.5% to 3%. The inflation outlook for Estonia is upgraded from 8.9% to 9.2% for 2023 and from 2% to 2.5%. (BNN/Business World Magazine)
