Poland’s central bank, the National Bank of Poland (NBP), does not predict a recession in the country, but economic growth may fall to zero, the central bank governor has said.
At his monthly press conference on December 8 following an interest rate decision a day before, Adam Glapinski said that despite weakening sentiment, Poland should not see a recession.
“We’re not predicting a recession in Poland, but it may happen that we will go down to GDP growth rate around zero,” Glapinski said. “In our projections we’re forecasting that it will be at least 0.7%, but there are many factors involved.”
Glapinski also predicted that Poland’s consumer price index, the CPI, would continue to go up in January and February 2023 but would start falling from March or April 2023.
“We’re predicting there will be a rise in January and February 2023, but we’re expecting that until the end of the first quarter, until March or April, inflation will start falling consistently and fast,” the governor said. “It will be a permanent process.”
Until the end of next year, inflation should fall to the single-digit area, according to Glapinski.
“All projections, including the significant international ones from international institutions, show that until the end of next year we will be down to single-digit inflation between 6% and 9%,” Glapinski said, but made a reservation that this would happen provided that “other circumstances do not change.”
On December 8, the NBP’s rate-setting body, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), kept interest rates unchanged for the third month in a row, leaving the main interest rate at 6.75%, far below November’s 17.4% CPI figure.
Explaining its decision, the RPP said that Poland’s inflation would probably go down as a result of the restrictive policies of the world’s major central banks, which would help curb inflation and commodity prices across the globe. Poland is expected to experience weaker growth next year, which will also ease inflation pressures, the RPP said. (The First News/Business World Magazine)
