The Ministry of Economy has prepared a preliminary version of the forecast of macroeconomic indicators. According to preliminary projections, Moldova’s economy will grow by 0.3% in 2022.
According to the ministry, the accelerated rise in foreign prices, the war near the border with the Republic of Moldova, the difficulties in international supply chains, which will moderate external and domestic demand, are the main hypotheses underlying these projections.
At the same time, a slight positive development is expected in some economic sectors. Investment activity will continue to grow due to public infrastructure projects financed, in particular, from external sources of development partners. Although constrained by rising production costs and raw material insurance risks in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, opportunities will arise for the industrial sector due to declining imports from the countries affected by the conflict.
In the coming years (2023-2025), according to the ministry, in the conditions of improving the situation in the region, the economy will gradually recover and will register a growth between 3-4.5%.
This forecast scenario is based on the assumption that the war in Ukraine will not deteriorate significantly and the situation in the region will begin to improve, the monetary policy of the National Bank will be focused on counteracting inflationary pressures and maintaining the stability of the national currency in response to declining imports from the countries involved in the conflict and the weather conditions will be relatively favorable.
The Ministry of Economy notes that there are still major risks and uncertainties regarding the evolution of the situation in the region, which may influence the forecast data. (Moldpres/Business World Magazine)
