A gradual economic recovery in Ukraine is expected in the second half of 2020, but economic activity will remain lower than before the crisis and real GDP may drop by 5.9% this year, Ukraine’s Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting has said in a survey for April entitled “Ukraine’s Macroeconomic Forecast – Corona Crisis”.
“We expect the economy to suffer severely from internal constraints and a decline in external demand. A gradual economic recovery is expected in the second half of 2020, but economic activity will remain lower than before the crisis. We forecast real GDP to fall by 5.9% in 2020,” the document reads.
Experts say consumer inflation is projected to rise only to 7.5% in December, as weak demand will limit the impact of higher inflation expectations and the depreciation of the hryvnia.
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting said the forecast was being prepared “under very volatile conditions and on the basis of assumptions that may be incorrect”. Experts also suggest that most restrictions on economic activity will be lifted by the end of the second quarter.
According to the analysis, the average hryvnia exchange rate in 2020 at the level of UAH 28.7 per U.S. dollar was used to make the forecast.
The macroeconomic forecast prepared by the institute is “purely informative”, according to the survey.
Ukraine’s government earlier revised the macroeconomic forecast for 2020. In particular, Ukraine’s GDP is expected to fall by 3.9% compared to the 3.7% increase previously projected before the global crisis. The unemployment rate will reach 9.4% compared to the projected 8.1%, and the fall in real wages will be 0.3%. (Ukrinform/Business World Magazine)
