The drop in the federal budget’s oil and gas revenues continues to accelerate, reported the Russian Ministry of Finance on Wednesday. In January, the treasury collected 393.3 billion rubles in taxes on oil and gas – half as much as in the same month a year earlier.
In nominal terms, the flow of raw material rent into the budget has fallen to its lowest level since July 2020. And in relative terms – 2% of GDP – their volume, it seems, has become an anti-record “for the entire Vladimir Putin era”, notes Janis Kluge, an expert at the German Center for International Security Problems.
The receipts from the key tax on mineral extraction (MITE) compared to January 2025 have plummeted by almost 60%, and the revenues from export duties have become 44% less.
The Ministry of Finance’s data indicate a “budgetary catastrophe”, write MMI analysts. Instead of $59 per barrel, which was laid down in the budget project, the price of the Russian Urals grade fell to $39 in December and $40 in January. And the ruble price of oil, on which taxes are calculated, has dropped to 3073 rubles per barrel instead of the budget-needed 5440 rubles.
“For the budget, the situation looks difficult,” notes Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance. Due to sanctions, discounts on Russian oil in January reached $27 per barrel. “This means weaker revenues from MITE and export taxes and preserves the risk of an increase in the deficit,” notes Chernov.
The government hoped to reduce the “hole” in the budget from last year’s $5.7 trillion to $3.8 trillion by raising the VAT and taxes on small businesses. But in fact, it could increase to 8-10 trillion rubles, a source familiar with the government’s closed calculations told Reuters (The Moscow Times).
