The federal budget of Russia in 2025 was in deficit for the fourth consecutive year: the government’s revenues were lower than its expenditures by 5.645 trillion rubles, reported the Ministry of Finance on Monday.
Compared to 2024 (3.471 trillion rubles), the “hole” in the treasury increased by 1.6 times, and in relative terms – 2.6% of GDP – set a record since 2020 (3.8% of GDP).
Oil and gas revenues plummeted by 24% over the year, to 8.393 trillion rubles, after the price of Urals oil fell below $40 instead of the budgeted $70. Non-oil and gas revenues increased by 13% year-on-year, to 28.807 trillion rubles, but were still almost 552 billion rubles below the initial plan of the Ministry of Finance.
Last year, the government raised the profit tax (from 20% to 25%), introduced a differentiated scale of personal income tax, increased duties and excises, promising to collect an additional 3.6 trillion rubles into the budget. In fact, revenues only increased by 575 billion rubles (1.6%), and in real terms – taking into account inflation – began to decline.
The revenues of the entire Russian budget system, including regional budgets, the Pension Fund and the Mandatory Health Insurance Fund, have not grown for the third consecutive year, notes economist Viktor Tunev: last year it was 91 trillion rubles, a year earlier – 89 trillion, in 2023 – 87 trillion. “Every year we raise taxes, but they don’t bring anything to the treasury,” notes Tunev. – “Revenues are steadily declining in real terms and relative to GDP.”
Actual revenues on key items were significantly lower than planned due to the “deterioration of economic conditions”, notes CMAKP expert Emil Ablayev: the pace of economic growth slowed down almost to zero, corporate profits began to decline, and revenues from foreign trade fell due to increased sanctions (The Moscow Times).
