The Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) are focusing on deposit refund schemes, strengthening extended producer responsibility (EPR), and expanding separate waste collection, but they differ significantly in market structure, recycling efficiency, and investment needs.
The packaging markets in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are developing under stricter EU regulations and the implementation of deposit refund and EPR schemes. Furthermore, the packaging and recycling markets in these countries are closely interconnected and are developing along a similar path.
One common feature among the Baltic states is that they have already implemented deposit refund systems for beverage packaging: Estonia in 2005, Lithuania in 2016, and Latvia in 2022. The per capita volume of packaging waste in all three countries remains below the EU-27 average, which was 186.5 kg per capita in 2022.
Among the Baltic countries, Estonia is one of the most advanced in packaging recycling. According to the European Environment Agency, the volume of packaging waste per capita in 2022 was approximately 143 kg.
At the same time, Estonia’s overall waste recycling rate already exceeds the 2025 target. The European Environment Agency explicitly states that the country has already exceeded the 2025 packaging waste recycling target by 65% and is one of the few EU member states ahead of the required packaging recycling rate. According to the Economic Commission for Europe, this is also facilitated by the long-standing deposit refund system for beverage packaging.
It is noted that this regulatory area remains a key factor in the future. A report by the German-Baltic Chamber of Commerce (AHK) presents a clear reform plan for Estonia, including stricter separate waste collection, expanded obligations for producers, a planned reform of the packaging tax, and a goal to make packaging more environmentally friendly and recyclable.
Improving the direct collection system for packaging waste at source and improving the quality of digital waste data are expected to further promote the development of a circular economy.
The packaging services sector is estimated to be worth approximately EUR 44 million in 2026. Paper, cardboard, and plastic play a key role in the overall balance of packaging materials. In 2026, the production of paper and paper products in Estonia, which accounts for a significant portion of cardboard and paper packaging, is projected to be just over EUR 240 million.
In recent years, Latvia has made significant progress in packaging waste recycling, and the amount of packaging waste per capita continues to increase. However, this figure remains below the EU average and therefore moderate by European standards. Total municipal waste volume in 2022 was also below the EU-27 average, amounting to approximately 464 kg per capita compared to 513 kg.
This indicates an overall decrease in waste generation and, consequently, a decrease in packaging waste. At the same time, the overall recycling rate has increased. This primarily concerns paper, cardboard, wood, and glass-the main types of packaging waste. Plastic packaging is also gradually being recycled, although there has been little recent improvement. Separate collection of steel and aluminum also highlights areas where improvements can still be made.
Policy decisions are particularly important for the packaging industry. According to the AHK/RETech report, Latvia continues to expand its separate waste collection systems and the necessary infrastructure, and is implementing circular economy principles in packaging waste management.
Furthermore, according to the report, the relatively new deposit refund system for beverage packaging is already making a significant contribution to reducing waste. Thus, packaging management policy in Latvia is determined not only by recycling rates but also by producer responsibility, collection logistics, and cleanliness in public spaces.
The situation with packaging waste recycling in Lithuania is mixed. According to Eurostat, the per capita volume of packaging waste here is below the EU average of 186.5 kg per person. This indicates a comparatively low level of packaging waste generation in the EU. However, the overall recycling rate in the country is growing slowly.
According to the European Environment Agency, recycling rates for individual material fractions fluctuate significantly and do not show a clear upward trend. Overall efficiency depends primarily on paper and cardboard packaging, while structural deficiencies in the system are more evident with plastic and glass.
However, the problem lies beyond the basic legal framework: producers’ responsibilities for packaging are clearly defined, and national strategies clearly align with waste management hierarchies, collection systems, and the expansion of recycling capacity.
In terms of the market, the potential is particularly noticeable in the plastics segment. In 2026, revenues from plastic packaging production in Lithuania are expected to grow to almost EUR 640 million, making the country one of the largest plastic packaging markets in Central and Eastern Europe. At the same time, plastic packaging imports are projected to increase to nearly $140 million by 2026, highlighting Lithuania’s role as an import market for packaging solutions in the region.
Recycling of plastic packaging waste in the EU reached 41% in 2022.
However, the AHK/RETech report also identifies key barriers to achieving a circular economy, including low demand for recycled materials, limited recycling infrastructure, high levels of waste incineration, and a still-small market for eco-friendly products.
For the packaging industry, this means that the policy framework is already in place, but the transition from regulation to a viable closed-loop system for packaging materials remains a complex task. (Plastinfo)