The price of oil that would allow the government to cover all expenses and achieve a balanced budget amounted to $93 per barrel in 2025, according to analysts at Alfa-Bank.
Compared to 2024, the budget-balancing price increased by $4, compared to 2023 – by $7, and compared to the pre-war 2021 – by $21.
As a result, this indicator approached the record levels of the early 2010s, when a budget balance required a barrel price of around $100 and higher. At the end of the 2010s, the government was barely able to balance the budget with oil at $49 per barrel.
The current levels of the balancing price indicate that the budget “remains highly sensitive to oil prices,” write analysts at Alfa-Bank. For comparison: in the early 2000s, the budget only required $18-25 per barrel to cover all expenses with the collected taxes (The Moscow Times).
