The dynamics of support for Ukraine from Western partners has slowed down, with partner assistance falling to its lowest level since January 2022. This conclusion was reached by the authors of the Ukraine Support Tracker from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, who updated their data on December 7.
“The period between August and October saw a stark drop in the amount of newly committed aid, with the value of new packages totaling just EUR 2.11 billion, an 87% drop compared to the same period in 2022 and the lowest amount since January 2022. Of the 42 donors tracked, only 20 committed new aid packages in the last 3 months, the smallest share of active donors since the start of the war. There have also been little new commitments by the European Union and the United States,” the study says.
The largest “unfinished” commitments so far are from the EU, which has not yet approved a support package, and the U.S. aid, which is gradually being reduced.
“Our figures confirm the impression of a more hesitant donor attitude in recent months. Ukraine is increasingly dependent on a few core donors that continue to deliver substantial support, like Germany, the US, or the Nordic countries. Given the uncertainty over further US aid, Ukraine can only hope for the EU to finally pass its long-announced EUR 50-billion support package. A further delay would clearly strengthen Putin’s position,” Christoph Trebesch, head of the team producing the Ukraine Support Tracker and director of a research center at the Kiel Institute, said.
The main group of active donors are individual European countries, such as Croatia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland (not providing military assistance), as well as NATO countries such as Canada and the United Kingdom. In addition, Ukraine can rely on large previously pledged multi-year programs, which now account for most of the actual assistance provided. For example, Denmark, Germany and Norway provided EUR 1.2 billion, EUR 1 billion and EUR 662 million in military aid in the last three months, respectively, under their previous multi-year schemes.
In terms of military assistance, the EU continued to catch up with, and now even outpace, the U.S. In particular, Germany and the Scandinavian countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland) have allocated significant new aid in recent months.
Of the total EUR 25 billion in commitments for heavy weapons (January 2022 – October 2023), the U.S. accounts for 43% of the total value, while all EU countries and institutions together account for 47%, and the rest comes from various other donors, including the UK and Canada. Over the last three months (August, September and October), EU countries allocated EUR 780 million worth of heavy weapons, compared to EUR 500 million from the U.S.
New pledges by Germany and the Nordic countries from August contribute to the trend of Europe taking on the role of leader. Through the new Patriot and IRIS-T air defense systems from Germany and 19 F-16 fighters from Denmark as part of a joint air coalition with the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Other examples of EU cooperation in military assistance include new joint procurement agreements between the Netherlands, Denmark and the Czech Republic to provide Ukraine with 15 modernized T-72EA main battle tanks, as well as a series of joint procurement schemes by Nordic countries to purchase 155 mm ammunition.
Among the top ten donor countries, military assistance now accounts for 58% of total aid (as of October 31). The United States remains the largest military donor with total commitments of EUR 44 billion. But Germany is catching up, with total German military commitments now exceeding EUR 17 billion. Smaller countries, such as the Nordic countries and the Netherlands, are also playing an increasingly important role in military aid.
Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid pledged to Ukraine since January 24, 2022. The current report covers the period up to October 31. The comprehensive assistance of 40 countries is tracked, including the EU, G7 members, as well as Australia, South Korea, Turkiye, Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, China, Taiwan and India. In addition, EU institutions are counted as a separate donor. The tracker contains a list of commitments between governments. Private donations or donations from international organizations such as the IMF are not included in the main database.
The database combines official government sources with information from international media. In-kind aid, such as medical supplies, food or military equipment, is quantified based on market prices or information on previous crises involving state aid. (Ukrinform/Business World Magazine)
