The recent GDP growth figures point to Belarus’ gradual economic recovery, Director of Alpari Eurasia Alexander Sabodin said during the online conference on November 22.
“The transition from the two-year recession to the GDP growth is a sign that the hardest times are behind us,” he said.
The expert stated, however, that the country’s economic recovery was driven mainly thanks to the external factors. These included the resumption of full oil supplies from Russia, the increased prices for oil and oil products, potash fertilizers and the restoring demand for Belarusian products in Russia.
“The growth based on external factors can not be called sustainable, however. The deterioration of external factors may once again lead to a recession,” said Alexander Sabodin.
“Another problem is a slow pace of the growth. Emerging markets usually show the growth above the world average. To reduce the gap in living standards with the developed countries, we need the economy to expand by 4% and more per year,” he added.
The expert associates the further growth of the Belarusian economy with the transition away from the administrative allocation of resources to market principles.
“This process is long and painful, but can lead to a higher and more sustainable growth in the midterm,” Alexander Sabodin said.
“Under the inertia scenario, which implies further support to underperforming enterprises, the growth potential of the Belarusian economy in 2018 is estimated at 1.5-2% given the external environment is favorable” he added. (BelTA/Business World Magazine)