The Ukrainian economy will begin to recover in 2021 due to positive trends in foreign markets and monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Such forecasts were made by Ukrainian presidential advisor on economic issues Oleh Ustenko, the press service of the President’s Office reported.
“If we talk about 2021 in general, we expect it to be a year of economic growth, a year of the gradual recovery of the entire global economy and, of course, the Ukrainian economy,” Ustenko said.
He added that Ukraine was largely dependent on the situation in foreign markets, where prices for raw materials exported by the country, including metals and agricultural products, had risen in recent months, and this situation was expected to continue.
Secondly, Ustenko said, the situation on the world financial markets had also improved.
“After the election campaign in the United States and the recent inauguration of the 46th U.S. President Joe Biden, all stock markets have begun to grow, which means that both creditors and investors are showing activity. In general, international markets have grown by more than 15% during this time. This means that investors who used to look for ‘quiet harbors’ are now looking for investment opportunities. This means that Ukraine, which is in the group of countries with emerging markets, can already actively compete for resources and count on the global inflow of investment,” he said.
At the same time, Ustenko stressed that Ukraine should take its “homework” seriously, in particular in terms of creating a quality investment climate, protecting property rights, improving the judiciary and more.
“The third important stimulus for economic development is the National Bank, which I anticipate will continue its relatively soft monetary policy. Last week, the NBU Monetary Council left the discount rate unchanged. It remains at its historic low since independence – 6%. This means that the economy is credited at 10-12% with a possible downward trend in the lending rate. This will be an additional stimulus for economic growth this year,” Ustenko said.
Another impetus for economic growth, according to him, could be government programs to stimulate the economy, such as “Big Construction” and the construction of large-scale infrastructure facilities.
“In addition, there is a forecast that in 2021 the world will emerge from the crisis associated with the coronavirus pandemic. Ukraine will start receiving the vaccine. Negotiations are underway on the part of the Ministry of Health. The President of Ukraine is talking to foreign leaders about the possibility of obtaining a vaccine for Ukraine, and it is hoped that this will be implemented soon enough,” he said.
Ustenko said that all these factors would contribute to the recovery of the Ukrainian economy.
“The recovery trajectory in 2021 will be at the level of 4-4.5% growth. It is possible that the growth will be even greater if it is possible to actively attract investment resources into the economy – and not only from outside but also inside the country,” he said. (Ukrinform/Business World Magazine)