The high-speed, European-gauge Rail Baltica project will cost close to EUR 24 billion, according to a newly released European Court of Auditors (ECA) special report.
Rail Baltica will run from Tallinn southward to the Lithuanian-Polish border. Its original estimated cost had been under EUR 6 billion.
Dubbed “EU multibillion transport megaprojects: Mind the gaps,” the audit report released on January 19 covers several major infrastructure investments, including Rail Baltica, and involves 13 EU member states.
ECA member Annemie Turtelboom, who led the preparation of the report, said at a press conference the first phase of Rail Baltica, meaning one pair of tracks, could be completed until 2030 despite issues. Turtelboom refrained from assessing the actions of the states in managing the project, saying that the reasons for its delays were not the purpose of their audit.
The original cost estimate for building Rail Baltica, one part of the core network of the trans-European transport network (TEN-T), was EUR 5.8 billion (at 2017 prices) at the time the relevant special report was drawn up in 2020. A risk-adjusted total cost was set at EUR 7 billion.
The new ECA report, using data available in 2025, found the cost of constructing the first stage of Rail Baltica to be EUR 15.3 billion, with the cost of completing the entire project estimated at EUR 23.8 billion.
A summary of the report notes many megaprojects have been dogged by cost increases, adding in the case of Rail Baltica, “costs have ballooned: +160% in the last six years to almost four times higher than initial estimates.”
The report noted that the project developer warned that the new cost forecast might still be inaccurate, as completed design studies covered only about one-third of the route.
Project partners have split the mega-infrastructure into two stages: a first phase consisting of a single railway line costing EUR 15.3 billion and due until 2030, and a broader second phase with no fixed deadline. Because of the extended timeline, total costs are likely to exceed EUR 23.8 billion once the second stage is completed.
The special report also revealed that a large part of TEN-T projects had become more expensive and most of them had also been delayed far beyond what was planned, meaning that the core network would not be completed until 2030. (ERR)