Slovakia’s central bank has revised its assumptions about Ukrainians who fled the war, as more find work and move into higher-skilled jobs.
Previous forecasts by the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) assumed the war would gradually end and some Ukrainians would return home. The bank now expects the conflict to continue throughout its forecast period, with further arrivals to Slovakia, although at a slower pace.
More of those already here are finding their place in the labour market, which the NBS says points to a longer stay in Slovakia.
Nearly 26,000 people with temporary protection were working in Slovakia at the end of June, 3,300 more than a year earlier.
Some have more than one job.
Their growing role in the workforce comes as Slovakia’s ageing population leaves fewer workers available.
The integration of Ukrainians shows that Slovakia can make better use of its foreign workforce, the NBS Bank Board says. It called for the progress to be followed by a “well-thought-out migration policy”.
The type of work Ukrainians do has also changed since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
At first, many found jobs in manufacturing and administrative and support services, often in elementary occupations or as machine operators and assemblers.
The sectors employing Ukrainians have changed relatively little since 2023, but the type of jobs they hold has shifted more noticeably.
Administrative, service and retail positions accounted for about 13% of employment among people with temporary protection in March 2022. As of mid-2026, the figure was above 23%.
At the same time, the share working in elementary occupations declined.
Retail, tourism and hospitality have become somewhat more important employers, while the share working in administrative and support services has fallen.
Until now, the NBS had worked with the assumption that the war would end within the foreseeable future.
The NBS has now changed that assumption. It expects the current state of the conflict to continue throughout its forecast period and the number of people with temporary protection in Slovakia to keep growing, albeit more slowly.
The difference is substantial. Compared with its previous scenario, the NBS now expects more than 67,000 additional people with temporary protection to be living in Slovakia by the end of the forecast period.
The effect on employment is much smaller. The change is expected to add about 2,500 workers compared with the previous forecast, which already assumed that many Ukrainians who had found work would remain in Slovakia. (The Slovak Spectator)