The decision by the Baltic States to de-synchronise from Russian-controlled “BRELL” group is a very correct step, but too little attention is provided to how this will influence the prices of electricity in Latvia and Baltic region, says AJ Power manager Roberts Samtins.
Currently Baltic States are committed to disconnecting from BRELL until the year 2025. This network connects them with Russia and Belarus. Latvian, Lithuania and Estonian electricity distribution system operators Augstsprieguma tikls, Litgrid and Elering signed an agreement in August on the synchronisation of Baltic States’ power networks with so-called continental European networks in February 2025.
Following the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2022, Ukraine rushed to disconnect from the aggressor country’s united energy system, internationally known as IPS/UPS, and connected to continental Europe’s networks. Moldova disconnected from Russia’s energy network as well. Europe’s united energy system is the biggest in the world and unites territories with more than 600 million people.
Samtins said Augstsprieguma tikls was still looking at how it would happen between all three Baltic States. One of the scenarios may include reducing imports of electricity from Scandinavia. For example, a single inter-connection between Finland and Baltic States carries 700 MW of electricity – if this cable is damaged and the supply of power is cut, Latvia will need to increase its generation of electricity by the same volume.
“This is why, it is likely this will mean reduced import capacity for a period of time, because we will not be able to replace it and up the generation of electricity by 700 MW. This means electricity prices may go up. It could also increase consumption of natural gas, because it may become necessary to operate thermal power plants even more,” said Samtins.
He also stressed that it was unknown what kind of provocations Russia could potentially use.
“As we have seen, Russia doesn’t care what happens in their country as long as it hurts their neighbouring countries. In an attempt to interfere with Baltic States, their actions result in de-synchronisation speeding up. Technically it is not a simple process, but there could still be provocations from this side as well. Even in this case it is possible prices could go up. This is why we need to review our country’s energy system,” allowed Samtins.
He stressed that it was because of this reason Baltic States had to invest into their energy generation output on their own. If countries rely on cheap imports from other countries, it could end very badly. At the same time, Samtins stressed he saw no reasons why Baltic States might not be technologically prepared to disconnect from BRELL in 2025. (BNN/Business World Magazine)