The new British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has little experience in international relations. However, his country is an important ally of Ukraine and the Baltic States. Could the region expect continuous British support?
In the race for the premiership, Lizz Truss, who stayed in the top post for 45 days, emphasised the importance of the UK’s support for Ukraine. It is only natural given that she served as foreign secretary in Boris Johnson’s government.
Sunak, on the other hand, is more versed in economic matters. In addition to his previous role as the UK’s chancellor of the exchequer, he also worked as a hedge fund manager at the investment bank Goldman Sachs.
But despite Sunak’s lack of experience in foreign policy, the UK’s support for Ukraine is unlikely to change, experts say.
“For Johnson, this was a kind of a personal crusade, he really cared about it, and Truss also seized on the British deployments in Estonia as a way of highlighting her foreign policy credentials,” Edward Lucas, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), said.
“Sunak, as chancellor, didn’t have the opportunity to go on trips to Kyiv or sit on a tank in Estonia, as his predecessors did. But he’s aware that the Conservative Party in the country takes this very seriously,” he added.
Linas Kojala, Director of the Easter European Studies (EESC), also emphasised that “the Conservative Party still dominates the UK parliament”.
“This means that the main strategic trajectory won’t change, as it has never been a divisive factor – there has always been common ground within the party on sanctions against the Kremlin, condemnation of its aggression, support for Ukraine, and arms supply,” he said.
And although Sunak has not spoken much about foreign policy due to his previous positions, he made clear his support for Ukraine whenever he had the opportunity.
Back in summer, when he was running for prime minister, he said that if he became the country’s leader, he would continue his support for the war-torn country and would pay his first foreign visit to Kyiv.
“If I become Prime Minister, I will redouble our efforts and reinforce our policy of total support for Ukraine that Boris has so ably led,” he said at the time.
US President Joe Biden and Sunak spoke on the phone for the first time on October 25 and agreed to work together to support Ukraine.
“The leaders agreed on the importance of working together to support Ukraine and hold Russia accountable for its aggression,” the White House said in a statement.
Sunak also reassured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a phone call that under his premiership, the UK’s support for Ukraine would be “as strong as ever”.
However, long-term military support to Ukraine would be costly, and Sunak’s views on defence and security spending are not entirely clear.
One of Truss’ key commitments as the UK’s prime minister was to increase the country’s defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030. Sunak called this plan “arbitrary”.
“Sunak talks that 2% of GDP for defence is a “floor” and that the country should move up from there. He is more moderate because he sees that the country’s overall economic situation is difficult, and such big commitments seem to him, as an economist, to have very little basis in concrete figures,” Kojala said.
Lucas also noted that Sunak would opt for a more cautious defence spending plan than Truss, but “this will not have any great effect on the support for Ukraine”.
Sunak himself promised to focus on stabilising the UK’s economic situation. During her short term in office, Truss announced tax cuts, which sent shockwaves across the financial markets. It will be up to the new prime minister to restore investor confidence and find ways to curb inflation in the country.
But while Sunak prioritises economic issues, the foreign policy strategy will be implemented by his team.
“Most British officials don’t change when political cycles or heads of government change, which means that many of those who have worked on Ukraine support will continue to do so,” Kojala said.
On October 25, following a cabinet reshuffle, Sunak announced that Ben Wallace would continue to serve as defence secretary, a post he had held since 2019. Wallace is highly respected in defence circles for his strong support for Ukraine.
The UK’s foreign policy towards the Baltic region is also unlikely to change under Sunak, experts emphasise.
“Since 2016, the UK has been directly involved in the security of the Baltic states in the context of the NATO Enhanced Forward Presence Battalion, which is deployed in Estonia. The strengthening of the British commitments to Estonia in the wake of the Russian aggression in Ukraine was strongly felt. This will continue, as these are long-term decisions on which there has been a very broad consensus in the UK,” Kojala said.
According to Lucas, the Baltic States may even be among the first to be visited by the new UK prime minister: “It would be an easy way to show that he’s committed to European security. It’s a good way to reinforce the links with the countries of the Joint Expeditionary Force, which is an important bloc in the European Union. I think within the next few months, we will see him visiting the Baltic States.” (LRT/Business World Magazine)
