The State Statistics Committee of Ukraine greatly surprised or even shocked the market by publishing the final data on oilseeds planted area, particularly that of sunflower – 5.9 million ha. It’s not that the market hasn’t expected such a large sunflower acreage in 2016, but on the contrary. Back in December 2015 UkrAgroConsult estimated that sunflower planted area in Ukraine to exceed 6 million ha.
But the fact that such a large area would be officially announced was probably expected by no one. It means that officially it is admitted that sunflower area is almost two times as large as the scientifically grounded norm.
It’s no secret that estimates of sunflower seed production (planted area, yield, harvest) always had to be revised upwards. To calculate a realistic sunflower seed/oil supply and demand balance, the planted area at 5.5-5.6 million ha was usually considered depending on the season, while the official acreage hardly reached 5 million ha.
Can we say now that in 2016 we will not need to reappraise the acreage and production of sunflower seed? Will sunflower market be transparent and clear, such as rapeseed or soybean one? This would facilitate work of all oilseeds market operators.
But taking into account many-year experience, UkrAgroConsult still believes that the 5.9 million ha of sunflower planted area is not a final figure. (UkrAgroConsult/Business World Magazine)
