The average price of Russian Urals oil in December 2025 fell to $39.18 per barrel, the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia reported on Tuesday. Compared to November ($44.87), the main export brand of Russian oil companies became 13% cheaper, and compared to the beginning of the year ($67.66 in January) – by 41%.
Due to Donald Trump’s sanctions against “Rosneft” and “Lukoil”, discounts on Urals reached record levels since the beginning of the war: up to $28 per barrel compared to Brent in the ports of the Baltic Sea and up to $26 in the Black Sea, according to Argus statistics.
As a result, the average cost of Russian oil fell to its lowest level since May 2020 ($31.03), when the pandemic was raging in the world and the global oil market experienced an unprecedented collapse. In fact, the price of oil has returned to the levels of Vladimir Putin’s first term ($41.73 per barrel in 2004) and is almost $20 below the level set in the 2026 budget ($59 per barrel).
In the current budget, the Ministry of Finance budgeted 8.9 trillion rubles in revenues from oil and gas. But in fact, with current prices and discounts, they will be 1.1-1.4 trillion rubles below the plan, estimates economist Dmitry Polevoy.
As a result, the budget deficit, which is planned at 1.6% of GDP, could reach 2.5-2.7% of GDP, and to cover the shortfall in revenues, the government will have to use the reserves of the National Welfare Fund, warns the expert.
Currently, the liquid assets of the NWF amount to 4.1 trillion rubles. This may be enough for 1.5-2 years of unfavorable oil market conditions, estimates Polevoy (The Moscow Times).
