Slovakia’s public finances are starting to resemble Greece before its debt crisis, NBS economists have warned – drawing a response from the finance minister.
“Over the past seven years, Slovak public finances have moved from primary surpluses to high deficits, mainly due to rising social spending and public-sector wages,” NBS chief economist Michal Horvath and analyst Martin Nevicky said in a joint analysis.
They added that “most of the fiscal consolidation still lies ahead”.
The current government, led by Robert Fico, has introduced three fiscal consolidation packages, largely focused on raising taxes.
The economists point to a primary deficit – excluding debt interest payments – of about 4% of GDP and rapidly growing long-term pressures as large generations approach retirement. Social spending already absorbs around 41% of state revenues, slightly above Greece’s 39.4% before its 2008 crisis. After years of painful reforms, Greece reduced that share to 33.9%.
They warn Slovakia risks repeating an early Greek mistake: relying heavily on tax increases while economic growth slows.
“Like Greece initially, we are mainly looking for solutions in higher taxes, but the effect is limited in a weakening economy,” the analysts said, noting the state collected EUR 1.2 billion less in taxes in 2025 than planned.
Greece, once seen as the eurozone’s fiscal outlier, now runs more sustainable budgets after deep cuts. Slovakia, by contrast, is projected by the European Commission to see public debt rise from nearly 62% of GDP in 2025 to nearly 67% of GDP until 2027. Greece, despite much higher debt overall, is projected to move in the opposite direction, falling from 147.6% to around 138% of GDP over the same period.
Slovakia’s annual budget deficits are also expected to remain above 4.6% of GDP through 2027, while Greece is forecast to post balanced budgets or surpluses.
Finance Minister Ladislav Kamenicky (Smer) rejected the comparison outright.
“Today I couldn’t believe my own ears,” he said, accusing the central bank of “damaging the Slovak Republic” by invoking the Greek example.
He argued that current problems largely stemmed from governments in office between 2020 and 2023 – when debt began to rise sharply – as well as from weak external economic conditions.
The previous OLaNO-led governments (2020-2023) also faced difficult external conditions, including the pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine. Unlike the short-lived governments, Fico is serving his fourth term and previously governed during economically favourable periods, yet his administrations largely failed to reduce public debt.
Economists say Slovakia still has time to avoid a crisis. Unlike Greece before its bailout, the country is not under pressure from markets or international lenders – but, they warn, that window may not stay open indefinitely. (The Slovak Spectator)