While the completion date for Rail Baltica has recently been set at 2030, it may not be possible to travel on the railway until 2031. Currently, the Ministry of Climate estimates that the Estonian section of Rail Baltica will cost 3 billion euros, and this figure assumes significant cuts to the originally planned scope.
In June, the Riigikogu State Budget Select Committee held a discussion on the Rail Baltica project and requested additional information from the Ministry of Climate beyond what was verbally presented.
On November 7, the Ministry of Climate sent the requested responses to the committee. According to the schedule provided by the ministry, the railway could indeed be completed until 2030 under the current plan, but construction of the management and electrical systems would continue into 2030.
Furthermore, the timeline indicates that testing and commissioning of the railway would continue into 2031, meaning that freight and passenger transport would not be possible until then.
Infrastructure Minister Vladimir Svet (SDE) stated that, in reality, there was no clear estimate yet on when trains might begin operating on Rail Baltica and a better understanding of the timeline would only be available in April of next year, when the outcomes of currently announced tenders were known.
Additionally, the Ministry of Climate’s letter to the parliamentary committee noted that significant cuts to the original scope of Rail Baltica were being considered.
Specifically, a majority of the railway will have a single track, traffic management will be at 80% of the original plan and electrification will cover 70% of what was initially planned. The construction of a tenth viaduct will be canceled, local stops will be scaled down, the Ulemiste and Parnu passenger terminals may be reduced in size and the Parnu freight terminal will not be built using Rail Baltica funds.
With these cuts and potential reductions, Rail Baltic Estonia estimates the construction cost at EUR 3.07 billion, which, for comparison, amounts to 15% of Estonia’s state budget for next year. However, this cost will not be incurred in a single year and most of the funding is expected to come from the European Union.
So far, the European Union budget has provided EUR 730 million for the construction of the Estonian section of Rail Baltica, with an additional EUR 450 million allocated by the Estonian state.
Svet indicated that the planned cuts were likely to be implemented.
“Given the anticipated train frequency, especially likely during the first decade, the omitted features will not be strictly necessary,” Svet noted.
“The only way to complete Rail Baltica until 2030 is to build only what is absolutely essential and to defer whatever can be postponed,” Svet stated.
When asked whether future expenditures could be covered by the Connecting Europe Facility, Svet replied that no one knew for sure.
The minister also mentioned that there were plans to launch a tender next year for trains to operate on Rail Baltica. Based on the experience of passenger train operator Elron, it could take four to five years from the tender’s conclusion to the delivery of the trains, meaning they would be ready for the railway’s potential completion.
Finally, Svet emphasized that for him, the critical goal was the project’s completion rather than ensuring passenger operations until 2030.
“If we look at how Rail Baltica has progressed recently, we see that tenders are becoming more cost-effective. We see there is potential to achieve even more than initially planned. I hope that if we maintain this pace, everything will succeed. But we are not creating illusions that this is an easy process or that everything is set in stone,” Svet added. (ERR)