Poland’s unemployment rate should fluctuate only slightly until November, but might rise from the current 5% to 5.5% at the start of 2024, a government-affiliated economic think-tank said on September 25, commenting on August’s unemployment figures.
The Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported that unemployment in August remained unchanged from July at 5%.
“We expect a slight fluctuation in the unemployment rate until November,” the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) wrote in a commentary. “In September, it will continue to stay at the level of 5%. At the start of the new year it will rise to about 5.5%, mostly due to seasonal factors. In 2024, the unemployment rate will remain at a level close to this year’s.”
PIE drew attention to the fact that the number of registered unemployed, reported by GUS at 782,500 in August, had been systematically falling in most age groups. However, the economic slowdown means that it is harder for people entering the labour market to start a career, PIE say. The number of unemployed people under 30 is similar to last year’s figure, when unemployment mostly affected the 30-50-year age group.
The think-tank noted that labour offices received 95,000 new job offers in August, down by 2.3% YoY, though the drop affected mainly public-sector employment.
PIE highlighted, however, that despite the slowdown, the number of job offers was still around 45% higher than in 2012.
“As a result, the consequences for the labour market of weaker economic growth will be much less severe than during the credit crisis in the euro zone,” PIE wrote. (PAP/Business World Magazine)