Poland’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Council (RPP) is unlikely to increase interest rates again, as the hikes so far have had sufficient effect, an RPP member has said.
But Gabriela Maslowska added that a further increase could not be ruled out.
In a recent hiking cycle, the RPP raised interest rates 11 times but suspended rate increases after a 25-basis point hike in September 2022, leaving the reference rate in a deep negative territory, at 6.75%.
“The cycle of interest rate hikes has not been formally ended and therefore one cannot exclude that rates could be hiked at some point this year but currently I believe it is unlikely,” Maslowska wrote in an article published on the website of Catholic broadcaster Radio Maryja. “One can visibly see that to-date rate hikes have made a very strong impact on the lending situation and it does not seem it (lending) had to be curbed further.”
But just when rate cuts could take place is hard to determine, she has added, saying it will largely depend on what the next inflation and GDP projections show.
In December 2022, Maslowska said Poland stood a chance of an interest rate cut in 2024, while a cut in 2023 seemed less likely and could take place only amid extraordinary macroeconomic circumstances. (PAP/Business World Magazine)