Poland should avoid a recession in 2023, the governor of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) has said, citing the bank’s forecasts.
Adam Glapinski said there might be temporary fluctuations in 2023, but not a recession.
“Our projections indicate that we will not have a recession, that we may have some sort of swing in one quarter, but there will be no recession here,” he told a press conference on January 5.
“Maybe GDP growth will be in the region of zero, but still positive,” he said. “2% would be very good.”
Glapinski highlighted estimates by the International Monetary Fund that one third of eurozone countries would experience recession.
“We are dependent on those countries, we cooperate and trade with them, but we also have our own currency,” he said.
The NBP president also said that the expected EU post-pandemic recovery funding from Poland’s National Recovery Plan (KPO) would result in GDP growth of about 0.4% in the first year and 0.2% per year thereafter. He described the funding as “very useful”, but added that it would also push up inflation by 0.1% to 0.3%.
Glapinski said “the KPO’s effect would of course be positive”, but he played down its significance.
“Every eurocent that flows into Poland we welcome gladly, but it will have limited effect,” he said, adding that the central bank’s estimates of the KPO’s influence were slightly lower than the government’s.
But he also said the KPO funding would “greatly improve our image in the world of economic ratings and for foreign investors”.
Poland is due to get EUR 23.9 billion in grants and EUR 11.5 billion in cheap loans from the EU’s post-pandemic Recovery and Resilience Facility. The KPO outlines how the Polish government will spend the money. (PAP/Business World Magazine)