Poland’s economic growth will weaken to 3.2% in 2023 from 3.8% expected this year, while inflation will ease from this year’s 9.1% to 7.8% in 2023, the government has assumed in budget guidelines.
“Short-term prospects for the Polish economy are highly uncertain owing to the geopolitical situation (Russia’s aggression against Ukraine), turbulence in global production chains (China’s return to lockdown policy), high commodity prices and the economic condition of Poland’smain partners,” the government’s press service, CIR, said in a press release June 14.
“As a result of this, we expect that, despite positive economic performance in the first months of 2022, GDP growth will reach 3.8% in the whole of 2022 and 3.2% in 2023,” CIR continued.
“We also expect that inflation will reach 9.1% on average in 2022 and will decline to 7.8% in 2023,” CIR said, while making a reservation that the figures might change “depending on the geopolitical situation”.
Prices should show signs of slowing down until the third and fourth quarters of 2022 on the back of a tighter monetary policy and expected stabilisation of energy prices, according to the government.
Poland’s registered unemployment is expected to continue to fall and will reach 5.1% at the end of this year and will remain unchanged in 2023.
Average wage growth will reach 10.2% this year and 9.6% next year. The government has provisioned pay hikes in 2023 for the public sector of 7.8%.
Private consumption is expected to rise by 5.9% in real terms in 2022.
According to the finance minister, Magdalena Rzeczkowska, the guidelines can still be amended when data for the first two quarters of 2022 become available.
The government has until September 30 to file the final draft of the budget law with the lower house of parliament. (The First News/Business World Magazine)