Aivar Baikenov, the Head of Asset Management Divisionof Kazkom Securities commented on the situation with the exchange rate of Kazakhstani tenge.
“Tenge strengthening, in our opinion, is only temporary. It was caused by two factors. The first is a favorable and stable situation on the oil market, where we see, in fact, minimal fluctuations in the range of $55-57 per barrel. The second is large tax payments, in particular, CIT payments in 2016. We also have raw materials exporters paying their individual taxes in February. Both factors will soon lose their influence. The accounting period will end and oil prices have very good chances to drop, given the dynamic recovery of shale sector in the United States”, said Baikenov.
According to him, the prices are unlikely to increase further, but rather fall to $50-53 per barrel. He also added that there were three factors that, in short term, could play not in favor of the national currency.
“The first is a potential ruble weakening given that Russian authorities do not want to allow its further strengthening and further CBR rate cut. Second – mitigation of our monetary policy may also weaken tenge’s positions: rates fall gradually reduces the attractiveness of tenge assets. Third is the resumption of purchases of foreign currency by banks, businesses and the public, given the current exchange rates”, he said.
All this can lead to a temporary weakening of the exchange rate to 330-335 tenge per dollar (3-4%), emphasized the analyst. (Kazinform/Business World Magazine)
