Inflation in Poland will stay at a double-digit rate until the end of the year, likely peaking in August, an analyst at the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) has predicted.
Marcin Klucznik also said that during the summer, food prices would be 20% up YoY.
The Central Statistical Office (GUS) announced on May 31 that the prices of goods and services rose by 13.9% YoY in May and by 1.7% MoM.
“Price growth is accelerating again,” Klucznik said and noted that the steepest price rises affected food (+13.5%) and energy (+31.4%), while fuel was also getting more expensive (+35.4%), chiefly Pb95 leaded petrol.
“Baseline inflation has grown from 7.7% to 8.3%,” he estimated.
The analyst predicted summer food price rises of over 20% due to global production problems and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine pushing up the costs of grain, oil and meat. According to him, drought would further exacerbate food price hikes globally.
“Inflation will remain double-figure till the end of the year – the peak will probably fall in August,” Klucznik said.
“Until the end of the year we forecast a fall to about 12%,” he said, adding that H2 would see a significant slowdown in economic growth, resulting in slower price growth.
“Despite that, inflation will stay higher than the National Bank of Poland’s target (2.5%) at least until the end of 2024,” Klucznik concluded. (The First News/Business World Magazine)