Ukraine’s economy in 2017-2021 may grow by 2-5% per year. This was the forecast made by 54.2% of participants surveyed at the Ukrainian Financial Forum, organized by ICU (a financial services company) in Odessa on September 29-30.
According to a poll conducted among the participants, 37.5% of respondents forecast an increase in the country’s GDP in the next five years by around 2% per year, while a 5% growth forecast is announced by a mere 2.8% of those polled.
Co-chairman of the group of advisers to the Prime Minister of Ukraine, former Slovak Finance Minister Ivan Miklos said he also expected Ukraine to see a 2-5% economic growth in the next five years.
“The most difficult period of stabilization is behind: inflation and the forex rate have become stable, so structural reforms can yield quick results”, Miklos said.
According to him, subject to further implementation of structural reforms, Ukraine stands a chance of reaching a growth rate of over 5% per year after 2021.
Referring to successful reforms in neighboring countries, Miklos said more attention should be given to fiscal consolidation and sound policies in the financial sector.
In addition, he said the level of redistribution of GDP through the budget in Ukraine, set at 40% or higher, was excessive, and it should be reduced to 35-37%, thus giving more capital to the business sector.
With regard to the best level of the budget deficit, 41.7% of the respondents said it should be set within 0-3% of GDP. Some 34.8% claimed it must be between 3% and 5% of GDP.
Some 9.7% suggested that the deficit should be raised above 5% of GDP, but 13.9% insisted on the surplus of the budget.
As reported, the Ukrainian government and the National Bank of Ukraine have predicted GDP to grow by 1-1.1% in 2016 amid inflation at about 12%. According to their forecasts, GDP growth may accelerate in 2017 to 3% amid 8% inflation. (Interfax/Business World Magazine)