According to the USDA estimates, the global crop of barley will be below its global consumption for a second season in a row. This trend will lead to a substantial decrease in barley stocks in the world. Global barley inventories are expected to shrink to a 34-year low of 18.6 MMT by the end of MY 2017-2018.
This scenario’s feasibility is confirmed by sharply increased demand from key importers at the start of the 2017-2018 season.
Thus, in view of tight global supply, the upward trend in barley market prices has been persisting for three months now and they have most likely not reached their ceiling yet. This market picture may result in higher barley margins against the previous season and a consequent increase in Ukrainian barley plantings for the 2018 harvest.
Planting of winter barley has just started in Ukraine, and the longer barley prices stay at such a high level, the more probable this course of events is. (UkrAgroConsult/Business World Magazine)
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