Minister of National Economy of Kazakhstan Timur Suleimenov has announced a forecast of the country’s social and economic development for 2019-2023.
“The forecast is based on the statistical reporting data on GDP for 2017, the results of economic sectors in seven months of the current year, and the trends on world commodity markets,” said Timur Suleimenov.
He mentioned that a gradual growth of the global economy was expected, according to IMF forecasts, at a level of 3.9% in 2018 and 2019. The world’s financial organizations’ consensus forecast for the crude oil price in 2019 is $66.7 per barrel.
“With this in view, the oil price upon the baseline scenario is set as $60. Real GDP growth is projected at 3.9% in 2019, and to subsequently rise to 4.6% in 2023. The average GDP annual growth rate will be 4.2%,” said Timur Suleimenov.
According to the forecasts, nominal GDP will grow from KZT 64,145.7 billion in 2019 to KZT 86,944.7 billion in 2023. GDP per capita will be equal to $9,900 in 2019, increasing to $12,900 in 2023.
“In the medium term the major drivers of economic activity growth will be the manufacturing and agribusiness sectors, the construction industry, the transport and logistics sector, and the service economy,” Timur Suleimenov noted.
The value of exports will amount to $56.5 billion in 2019 with an increase to $68.5 billion in 2023, while imports will rise from $34.8 billion in 2019 to $41.9 billion in 2023.
“The National Bank maintains the target corridor of annual inflation within 4% to 6% in 2019, with a subsequent decrease down to 3-4% in 2020-2023,” added Timur Suleimenov. (Kazinform/Business World Magazine)